Reducing U.S. Casulaties

What exactly was the surge supposed to accomplish? Atrios:

The decline in US casualties over the last couple of months (especially, so far, this month) appears to be real and therefore something to of course applaud. But it hasn't achieved any political progress. If the goal is to reduce US casualties in Iraq the simplest way is to, you know, get US troops out of Iraq.

Sounds reasonable.

How to Get out of Iraq

Juan Cole has an article in The Nation: How to Get out Of Iraq. (That may be subscription only.)

Here's part of an email he posted about it, regarding the constant trumpeting of "If we leave, it'll get worse - much, much worse." I've never bought into that one, partly because it's a convenient thing for the Bush admin. and their supporters to say and we've been lied to by them so many times that we should always suspect that they're lying, and partly because it's already so freaking bad that it's an inane argument. Cole:

Many commentators present the prospect of such a war as inevitable or as preventable only by a continued US military presence. The US presence, however, has made things worse every single one of the past three years, because it unwittingly removes the incentives to compromise from local Iraqi forces and helps to paralyze the neighbors from playing a prominent role. Remove the US military from the equation, I am arguing, and it is far more likely that all parties concerned will begin behaving more responsibly.

I cannot guarantee that outcome. I can say that the past 3 years do not make me sanguine that things will get better with a continued US dominance.

A Surge

The NYTimes' Alissa J. Rubin and Edward Wong on the surge:

That has put the Americans in the middle of sectarian battlegrounds, and their death rate in the city has nearly doubled. The number of Americans killed in combat or other violence rose to 53 in Baghdad in the first seven weeks of the push, from Feb. 14 to April 2. That is up from 29 in the seven weeks before then.

Bush and John McCain keep saying, "The surge is working", while American troop deaths have doubled.

And it's not even working for Baghdad:

And while the overall death rates for all of Iraq have not dropped significantly, largely because of devastating suicide bombings, a few parts of the capital have become calmer as some death squads have decided to lie low.

But there is little sign that the Baghdad push is accomplishing its main purpose: to create an island of stability in which Sunni Arabs, Shiite Arabs and Kurds can try to figure out how to run the country together. There has been no visible move toward compromise on the main dividing issues, like regional autonomy and more power sharing between Shiites and Sunnis.

A double in American deaths to make "a few parts of the capital" calmer. And they call that "working." There's much more over there.